Policy & Regulation

Texas power producers weigh in on tightening energy markets, load growth

When it comes to data center co-location, NRG and Vistra are willing partners.
Texas power producers weigh in on tightening energy markets, load growth
(Original public domain image from Wikimedia Commons.)

Two of Texas’ largest independent power producers are poised to benefit from a surge in demand largely driven by the burgeoning data center industry.

In their respective second-quarter earnings reports, NRG Energy and Vistra discussed potential opportunities for data center co-location.

NRG’s 21 generating sites are “ideally suited for new large loads and power plant development, offering co-location opportunities both behind and in front of the meter,” said NRG President and CEO Larry Coben on the company’s earnings call Thursday.

Coben said NRG’s facilities would be attractive to data center developers for their access to water for cooling, premium fiber channel access for low latency and existing grid access for rapid market entry. NRG’s fleet includes a mix of natural gas, renewables and coal.

“We were getting lots of people sort of throwing us bids for our sites,” Coben told investors.

He continued: “We know they think we’re just a bunch of power guys who don’t know anything about data centers. So, if that’s what they’re bidding us, we really need to look at this, because it means there’s a lot more value in there than the bids that we’re receiving.”

Regarding discussions with data center providers and any potential co-location deals, Coben said NRG was working on a strategy and would release more details later in 2024.

The concept of large loads co-locating with generation continues to draw interest. The most-watched proposal would result in the co-location of an Amazon Web Services (AWS) data center at Talen Energy’s Susquehanna nuclear plant in Pennsylvania.

Multiple utilities protested the proposed Talen Interconnection Service Agreement (ISA), prompting FERC to call for a technical conference in the fall to discuss the larger issue of co-location.

For Vistra, the pending Talen case or upcoming FERC technical conference “has not slowed the conversation down” on potential data center co-location deals, said company President and CEO Jim Burke.

“We’re in due diligence for a number of sites,” Burke told investors on the company’s Q2 call. “This is a really big opportunity for our industry to meet customer needs.”

Vistra reiterated the company can provide data centers the speed to market advantage since there wouldn’t be the same level of buildout needed on the transmission side.

“I think there’s going to be plenty of data center load behind-the-meter or co-located, and also front of the meter,” Burke said.

On planning for load growth and building new gas plants

The industry’s rapid load growth is being driven by data centers, electrification and new manufacturing. This is compounded by the retirement of fossil-fired plants. As a result, both NRG and Vistra see emerging supply gaps and tightening markets.

Among the regions expected to experience a surge in demand, ERCOT’s current long-term load forecast shows peak demand increasing from 86 GW in 2024 to 137 GW in 2028. This load growth will require significant planning and construction of new generation and transmission.

While NRG and Vistra operate plants outside of Texas, most of their growth is taking place in the ERCOT market. Both companies are taking advantage of the Texas Energy Fund (TEF), a government low-interest loan program used to incentivize the development of more dispatchable generation and smaller backup power in the state.

NRG has filed TEF loan applications for three separate projects, totaling more than 1,500 MW of capacity. Thee company would begin construction on two of the three facilities as early as October of this year.

One of these projects is a new 689 MW natural gas combined-cycle unit with Mitsubishi Power M501JAC equipment, located at NRG’s Cedar Bayou plant in Baytown, Texas. The target completion date would be late-2027.

The 415 MW simple-cycle unit at TH Wharton would include Siemens Energy’s SGT6-5000F equipment and could come online by mid-2026.

Finally, the 443 MW simple-cycle unit at Greens Bayou would be powered by a GE 7HA.03 turbine and could be finished by mid-2028.

“We believe our projects are well-situated for a timely approval, given their shovel-ready nature and the completeness of the applications that we submitted,” said Coben.

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick recently said 81 applicants representing over 41 GW of dispatchable power had applied through the fund, as of May 31. Patrick said the state planned on expanding the program during the next legislative session.

Coben told investors NRG could apply for more loan funding in a potential second TEF round, but also noted the challenge of multi-year lead times for turbines and other equipment.

“If you don’t have a place in the turbine queue today, there’s no way you’re getting a new project online before 2030, at the earliest,” he said.

In May, Vistra announced plans to add up to 2,000 MW of natural gas-fired capacity in West, Central and North Texas.

860 MW of simple-cycle peaker plants would support West Texas, including the state’s growing oil and gas industry. The company is seeing multiple demand drivers, including data centers and the electrification of oil field operations, specifically the Permian Basin of West Texas

Vistra would also convert its coal-fired Coleto Creek plant near Goliad to natural gas after the plant retires in 2027. Repowering would enable up to 600 MW of gas-fired capacity.

Also included are 500 MW of augmentations at existing facilities, nearly half of which are already finished, Burke said on the Q2 earnings call.

In its quarterly report, Vistra leadership noted the industry continues to experience supply chain constraints and labor shortages that have reduced the availability of certain equipment needed for the construction of renewables projects. As a result, Vistra has deferred some of planned capital spend for these projects, the company said in its 10-Q filing.

The company did announce two long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with Amazon and Microsoft for two new large-scale solar facilities.

Supply chain disruptions have also increased the lead times to procure certain materials necessary to maintain Vistra’s natural gas, nuclear and coal fleet, according to the filing.

“We have proactively engaged our suppliers to secure key materials needed to maintain our existing generation facilities prior to future planned outages,” the company reported.

In its Q2 report, NRG said procuring mid to long-term generation through PPAs continues to be part of its strategy. The company has entered into renewable PPAs totaling nearly 1.9 GW with third-party developers, all of which were operational as of July 31.

Tags