It’s a question Texas is being forced to address amidst a miserable month for wind generation, but the initial answer lends a promising prognosis to ratepayers. So far, electricity prices have remained stable despite nearly one-quarter of ERCOT’s generation profile being hampered by Mother Nature.

According to preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), wind power in the contiguous United States produced only 302,615 megawatt hours (MWh) on Tuesday, July 23. That’s the lowest amount since… The day before, when wind power produced 335,753 MWh. Six of the 10 worst days for wind power this year have been this month (July), but previous to this week’s abysmal totals, there hadn’t been a comparably bad day since October 4, 2021.

Wind farms are on track to produce an average of just 4% of power generation this week, down from 7% last week and 12% so far in 2024, per the EIA.

So how are electricity prices fairing in ERCOT territory, which counts on wind for 28% of its fuel mix in Q2 2024? Well…

Is anyone else surprised that Texas (ERCOT) can now have very boring price days MID SUMMER when wind output is sub 200 MW

I shouldn't be, the solar obviously was going to compliment a wind profile, but this is a paradigm shift in terms of price forecasting. pic.twitter.com/SgcunfUo3b

— Andrew Gelston (@agelston) July 24, 2024

“A paradigm shift in terms of price forecasting” may sound strong, but “boring days” are far better than blackouts. Boring days are welcomed in any territory, especially during the heat of summer.

Of course, ERCOT isn’t relying entirely on renewables to keep electricity prices in check- far from it. In the lower 48, gas-fired power plants are producing an average of 48% of generation this week, up from 46% last week, according to the EIA. U.S. plants generated 6.9 million MWh of electricity from natural gas in the lower 48 states on July 9, 2024, probably the most on any day in history, says the EIA.

Texas has generally lingered between 30,000 and 40,000 MWh of natural gas generation over the last week.

The stable pricing is not just ERCOT passing gas, though (sorry, had to).

ERCOT’s commitment to diversifying its fuel mix deserves recognition, as energy research scientist Joshua D. Rhodes points out:

Updated (through Q2 2024) ERCOT fuel mix shows solar's rapid growth and that ERCOT has run on about 47% clean electricity for the first half of 2024!

Fun fact: it looks like solar is growing about twice as fast as wind did; wind: 2%->10% in 7 years, solar: 2%->10% in 4 years. pic.twitter.com/1HlTabNyDy

— Joshua D. Rhodes (@joshdr83) July 24, 2024

Rhodes’ graph makes it easy to see how rapidly solar and wind are driving coal (and to a lesser extent, natural gas) out of the fuel mix. The fact that solar is expanding nearly twice as quickly as wind generation did in Texas is likely a testament to the success of the IRA and to the staying power of the industry (and all that land fit for utility-scale installations) .

In totality, the data indicates we may have reached a tipping point- hopefully, one that keeps electricity prices stable.

This represents an extension and expansion of a previous 15-year agreement between the two companies for energy from Peñascal I. CPS Energy more than doubled its power offtake from the project – increasing from 77 MW to 161 MW – and will now receive almost 80% of the power generated there.

Peñascal I was the first wind power project on the Texas coast, reaching commercial operations in 2009. It includes 84 turbines that generate a total of 202 MW.

“This is another great example of Avangrid working closely with our partners to continue delivering clean, reliable energy to customers,” said Pedro Azagra, Avangrid CEO. “In this case, we are growing our already strong relationship with CPS Energy to support their growing customer base while managing merchant risk at one of our existing wind facilities. Partnerships like this are critical to supporting a clean energy transition in Texas and beyond.”

“Growing our portfolio of renewable energy brings us closer to realizing our Vision 2027 goals,” said Rudy D. Garza, president and CEO of CPS Energy. “This expansion is an exciting step in our renewable energy commitments and is well-aligned with our approved generation plan.”

CPS Energy said the additional 84 MW of wind power supports its Vision 2027 plan that contemplates the retirement of 2,249 MW of older generation capacity before 2030. These efforts also align with CPS Energy’s commitment to the City of San Antonio’s Climate Action & Adaptation Plan (CAAP), which includes a resolution by the CPS Energy board of trustees to support the CAAP’s goal to become carbon neutral by 2050, and the interim goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 41% from 2016 levels and 71% by 2040.