It’s a question Texas is being forced to address amidst a miserable month for wind generation, but the initial answer lends a promising prognosis to ratepayers. So far, electricity prices have remained stable despite nearly one-quarter of ERCOT’s generation profile being hampered by Mother Nature.

According to preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), wind power in the contiguous United States produced only 302,615 megawatt hours (MWh) on Tuesday, July 23. That’s the lowest amount since… The day before, when wind power produced 335,753 MWh. Six of the 10 worst days for wind power this year have been this month (July), but previous to this week’s abysmal totals, there hadn’t been a comparably bad day since October 4, 2021.

Wind farms are on track to produce an average of just 4% of power generation this week, down from 7% last week and 12% so far in 2024, per the EIA.

So how are electricity prices fairing in ERCOT territory, which counts on wind for 28% of its fuel mix in Q2 2024? Well…

Is anyone else surprised that Texas (ERCOT) can now have very boring price days MID SUMMER when wind output is sub 200 MW

I shouldn't be, the solar obviously was going to compliment a wind profile, but this is a paradigm shift in terms of price forecasting. pic.twitter.com/SgcunfUo3b

— Andrew Gelston (@agelston) July 24, 2024

“A paradigm shift in terms of price forecasting” may sound strong, but “boring days” are far better than blackouts. Boring days are welcomed in any territory, especially during the heat of summer.

Of course, ERCOT isn’t relying entirely on renewables to keep electricity prices in check- far from it. In the lower 48, gas-fired power plants are producing an average of 48% of generation this week, up from 46% last week, according to the EIA. U.S. plants generated 6.9 million MWh of electricity from natural gas in the lower 48 states on July 9, 2024, probably the most on any day in history, says the EIA.

Texas has generally lingered between 30,000 and 40,000 MWh of natural gas generation over the last week.

The stable pricing is not just ERCOT passing gas, though (sorry, had to).

ERCOT’s commitment to diversifying its fuel mix deserves recognition, as energy research scientist Joshua D. Rhodes points out:

Updated (through Q2 2024) ERCOT fuel mix shows solar's rapid growth and that ERCOT has run on about 47% clean electricity for the first half of 2024!

Fun fact: it looks like solar is growing about twice as fast as wind did; wind: 2%->10% in 7 years, solar: 2%->10% in 4 years. pic.twitter.com/1HlTabNyDy

— Joshua D. Rhodes (@joshdr83) July 24, 2024

Rhodes’ graph makes it easy to see how rapidly solar and wind are driving coal (and to a lesser extent, natural gas) out of the fuel mix. The fact that solar is expanding nearly twice as quickly as wind generation did in Texas is likely a testament to the success of the IRA and to the staying power of the industry (and all that land fit for utility-scale installations) .

In totality, the data indicates we may have reached a tipping point- hopefully, one that keeps electricity prices stable.

DEV will only consider proposals for facilities located within PJM territory, not including those located in the state of Virginia.

All electrical output from the facilities will be delivered to the PJM Dominion Transmission Zone. Facilities that achieved a commercial operations date (COD) after October 1, 2021, and facilities under construction that achieve COD prior to the end of calendar year 2035 are eligible.

All participating bidders must register by submitting an Intent to Bid Form and an executed confidentiality agreement by August 30. The proposal submission deadline is September 30.

The Intent to Bid Form, CA, and other additional information on the RFP can also be found on the company’s website. 

This week, Virginia Electric and Power Company, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dominion Energy, agreed to acquire the Kitty Hawk North Wind offshore wind lease and associated developments from Avangrid for approximately $160 million, including a payment of roughly $3,000 per acre for the nearly 40,000-acre lease.

If approved by regulators and constructed, the former Kitty Hawk North Wind site, which will be known as CVOW-South, would connect to the company’s transmission grid and have a capacity of 800 MW. Avangrid retains the ownership and associated rights to Kitty Hawk South, and says it will continue the development of the area, which can potentially deliver up to 2.4 GW to North Carolina, Virginia, or other states or private companies. After receipt of necessary approvals from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the City of Virginia Beach, Dominion Energy and Avangrid expect to close the transaction in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The firm’s latest analysis predicts developers will put more than 5.4 terawatts (TWac) of new solar and wind capacity online over the next decade, increasing the cumulative global total to 8 TWac.

Energy storage capacity (excluding pumped hydro) will grow by more than 600%, Wood Mackenzie predicts, as nearly 1 TW of new capacity is expected to come online from 2024-2033.

“Global demand for renewables has reached unprecedented levels, driven by country-level policy targets, technology innovation, and concerns over energy security,” stated Luke Lewandowski, vice president of global renewables research at Wood Mackenzie. “Integrated power technology solutions will continue to evolve, evidenced by a significant increase in storage-paired capacity growth, despite inflation, grid constraints, and permitting challenges.”

Annual capacity will increase from approximately 500 GW of new solar and wind capacity installed in 2023, and average 560 GW annually over the 10-year outlook. China will continue to dominate solar, energy storage, and wind uptake, with 3.5 TWac forecast to be grid-connected between 2024 and 2033, notes WoodMac’s analysis.

“Solar PV leads the deployment race, accounting for 59% of global capacity due to come online between 2024 and 2033. Energy storage will have the most balanced geographic footprint over the outlook due in part to its important role in helping to make renewable power available,” Lewandowski added.

Solar: Cumulative installed global solar PV capacity to nearly quadruple from 2024 to 2033

“Ultra-low module prices intensified the rate of solar deployments last year in Europe and China and will continue to do so in the near-term. But grid constraints and a return to lower power prices and subsequently lower capture rates will impact markets and other regions,” said Juan Monge, the principal analyst of distributed solar PV at Wood Mackenzie.

Wood Mackenzie’s global solar PV forecast projects 4.7 terawatts direct current (TWdc) will be built between 2024 and 2033, with China accounting for 50% of that capacity growth.

Monge added: “Ultimately, maximizing solar PV capacity, and wind power capacity for that matter, in the next 10 years will depend on additional technology developments: from expanding grid infrastructure to incentivizing flexibility solutions, transportation, and heating electrification.”

In 2023, drastic drops in Chinese module prices and tight deadlines to interconnect tendered projects triggered 150% annual growth for installations across all solar PV segments, the analysis explains. Year-on-year increases in annual installed capacity will continue until 2026, when Wood Mackenzie forecasts a two-year slowdown due to an expected pause in development activity before the next round of planned procurement drives higher deployment.

For installations in the first quarter, developers in the US installed more solar in the first quarter of 2024 than in all of 2019, installations in China were up 36% year-on-year, and new capacity in India through Q1 amounted to 85% total capacity installed in 2023. However, Europe’s distributed PV boom has started to weaken, with first quarter residential installations contracting more than 30% in Germany and over 50% in the Netherlands as retail rates come down.

Energy storage: Global cumulative capacity will increase sixfold by the end of 2033, passing 1 TW/3 TWh

“Global energy storage deployment in 2023 achieved record-breaking growth of 162% compared to 2022, installing 45 GW/100 GWh. While impressive, the growth represents just the start for a multi-TW market as policy support in terms of tax exemption and capacity and hybrid auctions accelerate storage buildout across all regions,” said Anna Darmani, principal analyst of energy storage at Wood Mackenzie.

The global energy storage market is on track to reach 159 GW/358 GWh by the end of 2024, according to Wood Mackenzie’s Q2 global energy storage market outlook update. Looking ahead, 926 GW/2789 GWh will be added between 2024 and 2033, marking a 636% increase.

China remains the global leader in energy storage due to its booming solar market, with an average of 42 GW/120 GWh annual capacity additions forecasted in the next 10 years.

In Europe, grid-scale projects are booming as developers aim to seize opportunities from emerging contracted revenues. Demand from the distributed segment has decreased by 23% in 2024 as retail rates stabilize. With lower system costs and regulatory changes, however, distributed market growth is expected to resume from 2026.

Wind: Global wind power industry to add more than 1.7 TW over the next 10 years

According to Wood Mackenzie’s Q2 global wind market outlook update, policy support from China’s central government drives the world’s largest wind market, with China forecasted to install 91.5 GW on average annually.

“China’s central government announced a plan in May to promote the energy transition and ensure the country meets carbon-neutral targets,” explained Lucas Stavole, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “Project development has been accelerated in the short-term and renewable energy investment will be a long-term economic driver.” 

Challenges with permitting, grid access, financing, and supply chain availability impact the 2024 to 2026 outlook, pushing capacity into 2027 to 2033 and beyond the 10-year horizon. These dynamics impacted countries primarily in North America, Western Europe, and Asia.

Outside of China, wind additions globally will average 85 GW per year, a robust increase compared to the prior 10-year average of 37 GW. Additions in the Americas region will total 230 GW through 2033, as the offshore wind sector gains a foothold in the region and government incentives continue to drive growth.

The offshore wind sector, after connecting 11 GW globally in 2023, will average 39 GW of connected capacity annually from 2024 to 2033, (386 GW total), culminating in 54 GW in 2033. More than 50% (199 GW) of the total offshore wind capacity installed over the outlook period will be installed in China.

When WTTC opened in 2011, it tested land-based wind turbine blades that typically spanned around 50 meters (164 feet). Today, the WTTC is testing both land-based and offshore wind turbine blades that are growing in size as part of the industry’s move toward bigger wind turbines that can harvest more energy at lower wind speeds. 

The facility was used to test the Vineyard Wind 1 project’s larger blades for over a year. Without it, the blades would have needed to be tested in Europe, adding time and cost to the process, DOE said.

The blades are mounted on the inside of the facility. Only one installation angle was previously possible, but now through a new wedge plate system, blades can be angled anywhere from zero degrees to 12 degrees.

“That way, we’re able to apply a load at different blade angles,” said Rahul Yarala, WTTC’s executive director. “We can adjust the blade angles to study different worst-case situations, like 50-year wind gusts or Category 5 hurricane wind speeds.”

The WTTC team strategically places clamps that apply loads, mimicking outdoor elements, at different points along the blade. The recent improvements have expanded the number of possible load points (points of potential stress on the blade) from 8 to 11, which is necessary to accommodate the increased blade length. 

The tests at WTTC simulate two decades of wear and tear over the course of a few months. 

“We apply a load over millions of cycles to simulate the full life of a wind turbine blade in the field,” Yarala said. “To do that, we need the exciter systems to be able to provide the required energy input.”

The new testing techniques can also simultaneously move the blade in both flap and edge directions, which is known as biaxial blade testing. While biaxial blade testing is not yet common practice, the facility upgrade has allowed WTTC to develop it further.

Up to 300 sensors placed along the wind turbine blade transmit data about how the blade responds to forces applied during testing. The WTTC updates also included hardware and software systems that can handle the increase in data that comes with longer blades. 

In a tremendous blow to the offshore wind industry and an even heftier one to New York’s renewable energy goals, NYSERDA has announced the conclusion of its third offshore wind solicitation without granting final awards to any projects.

On October 24, 2023, NYSERDA provisionally awarded three offshore wind projects, subject to the successful conclusion of contract negotiations. These provisionally awarded projects, totaling more than 4 GW of clean energy, were supposed to begin commercial operation around 2030. They were:

Attentive Energy One: A 1,404 MW project developed by TotalEnergies, Rise Light & Power, and Corio Generation intended to benefit historically marginalized communities by retiring 1960’s fossil generation in New York City and reusing its physical and electrical infrastructure to cost-effectively deliver offshore wind power. Attentive Energy One was supposed to advance a community-driven initiative to repurpose the Ravenswood Generating Station into a clean energy hub.

Community Offshore Wind: A 1,314 MW venture developed by RWE Offshore Renewables and National Grid Ventures located 64 miles offshore that was supposed to deliver $3.3B in economic benefits and power more than 500,000 homes.

Excelsior Wind: A 1,314 MW Vineyard Offshore undertaking 24 miles off Long Island intending to generate enough power for 700,000 homes. The project could’ve avoided 1.1 million tons of carbon pollution annually, equivalent to taking nearly 225,000 cars off the road.

NYSERDA also provisionally awarded a $300 million chunk of New York State grant funding to GE Vernova and LM Wind Power for nacelle and blade manufacturing in New York’s Capital Region, which was associated with the provisionally awarded projects. These funds will be made available through a future competitive solicitation to continue the development of the offshore wind supply chain in New York.

“Subsequent to the provisional award announcement, material modifications to projects bid into New York’s third offshore wind solicitation caused technical and commercial complexities between provisional awardees and their partners, resulting in the provisionally awarded parties’ inability to come to terms,” reads NYSERDA’s release.

“Of note, GE Vernova’s offshore wind turbine product pivot away from the initially proposed 18 MW Haliade-X turbine platform to a 15.5/16.5 MW platform caused material changes to projects proposed into ORECRFP22-1. Given these developments, no final awards will be made, ORECRFP22-1 has been concluded, and NYSERDA will look to advance a future competitive solicitation.“

“NYSERDA remains committed to advancing New York’s offshore wind industry in pursuit of the State’s Climate Act goals and pursuing next steps in alignment with Governor Hochul’s 10-Point Action Plan. These next steps will be announced in the near future,” concludes the statement from the NYSERDA Offshore Wind Team.

2023 was a record year for wind power; the world installed 117 gigawatts of new wind capacity in 2023, a 50% increase from the year before, making it the best year for new wind projects on record, according to the latest Global Wind Report.

However, the offshore wind industry has been grappling with uncertainties recently; multiple PPAs have ended and developers and utilities have backed out of some projects.

Rhode Island Energy recently pulled out of its PPA with Ørsted and Eversource for the Revolution Wind 2 offshore project — citing higher interest rates, increased expense, and questionable federal tax credits, concluding that the project had become uneconomical.

In July 2023, Avangrid agreed to pay $48 million to pull out of a PPA with Eversource Energy, National Grid and Unitil for another offshore wind project, the 1,223 MW Commonwealth Wind located 20 miles south of Martha’s Vineyard. Rhode Island Energy, meanwhile, terminated its PPA with Ørsted and Eversource for the offshore wind farm Revolution Wind 2.

The National Wind Workforce Assessment: Challenges, Opportunities, and Future Needs report builds on past reports looking at the wind energy workforce gap, which found that wind energy employers had difficulty hiring both entry- and non-entry-level employees, and entry- and non-entry-level job seekers had difficulty landing jobs in wind energy-related careers.

The new report includes survey results from students, wind energy businesses, wind energy employees, and education and training programs to better understand current challenges facing the growth of the wind energy workforce. By identifying the potential impacts that collaborative partnerships, adequate training, and other key actions can have on workforce trends, the report outlines steps the NREL says will be necessary to bridge the gap.

“Our fast-growing clean energy economy is creating more jobs across America, and demand for wind energy workers is on the rise,” said Jeff Marootian, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. “With these strategies to expand career paths and opportunities, we can start bridging gaps now to ensure we will have a robust and talented future wind energy workforce.”

The report laid out several key takeaways that the NREL says could help “boost the quality and quantity of applicants” for wind energy jobs.

Connect classrooms to careers

The report says industry and educational institutions should collaborate to help students build awareness of wind industry opportunities. 60% of students reported a lack of exposure to the wind energy industry within their coursework, and 59% of wind energy firms reported no partnerships with educational institutions to find applicants for internships, apprenticeships, or job candidates.

To close this gap, the report says industry and educational and training institutions could align on where students should be instructed to look for job postings. 

Foster future talent

Industry firms could connect with students through outreach and programs like the Collegiate Wind Competition (CWC), a program funded by DOE’s Wind Energy Technologies Office. Students who take part in the CWC are nearly twice as likely to work in the wind energy industry compared to those who don’t, per the report.

The initiative is one example of a connective program that aims to help develop a robust wind workforce pipeline and encourages participants to pursue wind-energy-related jobs. The 2024 Collegiate Wind Competition will take place at the American Clean Energy Association’s CLEANPOWER conference next month, and applications are now open for collegiate teams interested in joining 2025 competition.

Create clear career pathways

Industry firms and educational institutions should establish effective internship and apprenticeship programs and pipelines, the report said.

Students and recent graduates from both 2-year and 4-year degree programs found that obtaining technical training was their main hurdle in securing jobs in the wind industry.

Prioritize inclusivity

Both industry firms and educational institutions should work to reduce barriers to entrance for historically underrepresented populations, the report said. Most firms who participated in the survey reported that they did not have hiring initiatives or programs to increase the number of employees in specific demographic groups.

The study used modeling to analyze workforce challenges and potential impacts of actions that could be leveraged to close the gap. This model estimates under a “business-as-usual” case, that the demand for workers may reach 258,000 by 2030 as both land-based and offshore wind energy grow; however, the workforce supply is only estimated to grow to 134,000 full-time employees. The estimated workforce demand may outpace the estimated workforce supply resulting in a gap of approximately 124,000 workers in 2030. 

The report also contains a series of four stakeholder-specific presentations that share a compilation of voices across the key stakeholder groups:

• Created for educators, the first presentation provides insights into student perspectives on wind energy education and training programs.
  
• The second presentation targets wind energy industry employers seeking to understand the perceptions of students trying to enter the wind energy industry.
  
• Geared towards helping wind industry employers and current employees, the third presentation provides perspectives on hiring hurdles faced by the wind energy industry.

BOSTON (AP) — Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut received proposals Wednesday for offshore wind projects as the three East Coast states hope to boost their reliance on the renewable energy source.

The three states joined in a historic agreement that allows for potential coordinated selection of offshore wind projects.

Massachusetts received bids from Avangrid Renewables, South Coast Wind Energy, and Vineyard Offshore in response to the region’s largest solicitation to date for offshore wind, seeking up to 3,600 megawatts.

Gov. Maura Healey’s administration “will review bids over the coming months, and coordinate with Connecticut and Rhode Island to evaluate multi-state projects that would increase benefits for the region, lower costs, and enhance project viability,” Massachusetts Energy Resources Commissioner Elizabeth Mahony said in a press release.

Rhode Island announced Wednesday that it will evaluate proposals from Avangrid Renewables, Orsted, SouthCoast Wind Energy, and Vineyard Offshore. It had requested proposals for approximately 1,200 megawatts of power.

Rhode Island acting Energy Commissioner Chris Kearns said the state looks forward to “reviewing the proposals with Rhode Island Energy along with Massachusetts and Connecticut state energy offices over the next few months.”

The Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection also announced Wednesday that it received proposals from four project developers under the multistate request.

Connecticut is seeking up to 2,000 megawatts of new offshore wind, which would add to the 304 megawatts of offshore wind power it will receive from the Revolution Wind project, which was jointly selected by Connecticut and Rhode Island and is now under development.

“We look forward to evaluating the submitted proposals received under this RFP over the coming months and coordinating review of any multi-state proposals received with Massachusetts and Rhode Island,” DEEP Commissioner Katie Dykes said.

The agency expects to announce in the third quarter of 2024 whether any projects have been selected.

Vineyard Offshore submitted a proposal for a 1,200-megawatt offshore wind project to the three states in response to their solicitation for up to 6,800 megawatts of offshore wind capacity.

“Vineyard Offshore knows how to deliver offshore wind to New England, and that’s by earning the trust of the communities we work in,” Vineyard Offshore CEO Alicia Barton said.

Ørsted announced it has submitted a proposal for a 1,184-megawatt Starboard Wind project, which would power more than 600,000 homes in Rhode Island.

Avangrid, Inc. submitted multiple proposals to the Massachusetts-Connecticut-Rhode Island solicitation for offshore wind power including New England Wind, representing two projects – the 791-megawatt New England Wind 1 project and 1,080 megawatt New England Wind 2 project.

Once a wind turbine reaches the end of its operational life or becomes outdated, it must be decommissioned and removed from the site. As of the first quarter of 2023, data from the United States Geological Survey reveals the existence of 72,731 wind turbines spread across 43 states, encompassing territories such as Guam and Puerto Rico.

According to the latest introduced legislation, U.S. representatives from Colorado are proposing that wind energy companies should be required to remove decommissioned wind turbines from leased land before becoming eligible for federal tax credits.

Managing wind turbine waste: rise of regulations

As wind turbines reach the end of their operational lives, the disposal and recycling of wind turbine blades can become a complex issue. These blades, often made from composite materials like carbon fiber or glass, are challenging to recycle using conventional methods, leading to considerable waste.

Due to their large size and durable composition, finding sustainable solutions for handling used wind turbines is crucial. Landfill disposal has been a common approach, but this method presents a different set of environmental and lifecycle cost challenges. 

Wind turbines have an operational lifespan of several decades, so waste management during decommissioning is a long-term consideration. Waste regulation aims to address concerns related to the disposal, recycling, and environmental impact of wind turbine components at the end of their useful life. 

Because the wind energy industry is relatively young, U.S. wind farm operators and policymakers have yet to encounter decommissioning challenges. Several states are starting to develop specific waste regulations for wind turbines. 

One of them is Texas, which holds the top position among all states regarding the number of wind turbines and boasts the highest installed capacity, measured in megawatts. With the rapid growth of Texas wind farms, the issue of handling wind turbine waste, particularly the disposal and recycling of wind turbine blades, has become a significant concern. 

Texas has seen efforts to develop more sustainable wind turbine waste management solutions. Some initiatives focus on innovative recycling technologies, exploring ways to break down or repurpose the composite materials used in wind turbines. The Texas legislature defines decommissioning requirements on any person who leases property from a landowner to operate a wind farm. The state’s efforts reflect the recognition that addressing wind turbine waste is essential for the sustainability of the wind energy sector and minimizing the environmental footprint of renewable energy infrastructure as a whole.

As another example, wind turbine waste management in Oklahoma shares similarities with other states with a significant wind energy presence but has unique challenges and initiatives. Oklahoma defines steps related to the proper decommissioning of a wind energy facility and the requirement for energy companies to remove decommissioned wind turbines from leased land. Oklahoma is also actively exploring various strategies for more responsible wind turbine waste management.

Waste regulation for wind turbines is essential for the continued growth and sustainability of wind energy as a renewable energy source, as it helps mitigate potential negative impacts on the environment while maximizing the benefits of clean energy generation.

New legislation in Colorado

Colorado has been investing in wind energy projects, and its wind capacity has steadily increased over the years. Naturally, wind turbines are predominantly installed in regions with strong and consistent winds, such as the eastern plains and southern parts of the state. 

*Map shows the location of the operating wind farms in Colorado

According to the EIA’s latest available information, Colorado has an installed capacity of around 5,200 MW of wind energy. Their wind farms include nearly 2,800 wind turbines.

The graphs below show the growth in wind capacity within the state for the last 10 years.

Colorado’s Wind Energy for the last 10 years. Source:  FirmoGraphs Power Mart, including EIA data, created in Qlik Sense

Colorado lawmakers have introduced a new legislative proposal that mandates wind energy companies to be responsible for the removal of decommissioned wind turbines within the state.

The bill aims to modify the Internal Revenue Code, making it mandatory for energy companies to remove decommissioned wind turbines from leased land to be eligible for federal tax credits. Currently, there is no requirement for wind energy companies to take responsibility for removing decommissioned wind turbines from leased land. As a result, property owners, often farmers and ranchers, bear the burden of turbine removal. This shift in legislation underscores the growing importance of addressing the challenges associated with renewable energy infrastructure at the end of its useful life.

A new report by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) examines the types of clean energy technologies, along with the scale and pace of deployment needed for the U.S. to reach 100% clean electricity by 2035.

The NREL study, Examining Supply-Side Options to Achieve 100% Clean Electricity by 2035, found multiple pathways to a decarbonized grid by 2035. However, the exact technology mix and costs would be determined by research and development, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment decisions made over the next decade.

NREL said the study scenarios considered many new factors: a 2035 full decarbonization timeframe, higher levels of electrification and an associated increase in electricity demand, increased electricity demand from carbon dioxide removal technologies and clean fuels production, higher reliance on existing commercial renewable energy generation technologies, and greater diversity of seasonal storage solutions. The report was also influenced by decades of prior research.

For each scenario, researchers modeled the least costly generation, energy storage, and transmission investment portfolio to maintain reliable power throughout the year.

“For the study, [NREL’s Regional Energy Deployment System] helped us explore how different factors—like siting constraints or evolving technology cost reductions—might influence the ability to accelerate renewable and clean energy technology deployment,” said Brian Sergi, a co-author of the study.

Clean technologies must scale up quickly

As modeled by NREL, wind and solar energy would provide 60%–80% of generation in the least-costly electricity mix in 2035. The overall generation capacity would grow to roughly three times the 2020 level by 2035—including a combined 2 TW (terawatts) of wind and solar.

To achieve those levels would require an additional 40–90 GW of solar on the grid per year and 70–150 GW of wind per year by the end of the decade, said NREL. That is more than four times the current annual deployment levels for each technology.

If challenges arise around siting and land use restrictions, researchers said nuclear power capacity would help make up the difference. However, nuclear resources would need to more than double the current installed capacity.

Across four scenarios modeled by NREL, 5–8 GW of new hydropower and 3–5 GW of new geothermal would also be deployed by 2035. Energy storage between 2–12 hours of capacity would also increase, with 120–350 GW of capacity deployed by 2035.

NREL also said seasonal storage capacity in 2035 could range from about 100 to 680 GW. Seasonal storage is important when clean electricity makes up about 80%–95% of generation and a mismatch exists between variable renewable supply and demand.

Seasonal storage is represented in the study as hydrogen-fueled combustion turbines, but it could also include other emerging technologies.

In all scenarios, significant transmission is also added in many locations, mostly to deliver energy from wind-rich regions to load centers in the eastern U.S. As modeled, the total transmission capacity in 2035 is one to almost three times the current capacity. That would require between 1,400 and 10,100 miles of new high-capacity lines per year, assuming new construction were to start in 2026.

Clean energy benefits

In all modeled scenarios, NREL found that the health and climate benefits associated with fewer emissions exceed the power system costs to get to 100% clean electricity.

To decarbonize the grid by 2035, researchers said the total system costs between 2023 and 2035 would range from $330 billion to $740 billion. The scenarios with the highest cost modeled by NREL included restrictions on new transmission and other infrastructure development.

In the scenario with the highest cost, the amount of wind to be delivered to large population centers would be constrained, with more storage and nuclear generation deployed.

Overall, researchers said that as a result of the emission reductions and better air quality, up to 130,000 premature deaths would be avoided in the coming decades, saving $390 billion to $400 billion. Those totals would likely exceed the cost of decarbonizing the electric grid.

NREL said that when factoring in the avoided cost of damage from the impacts of climate change, a net-zero grid could save more than an additional $1.2 trillion.

“The benefits of a zero-carbon grid outweigh the costs in each of the more than 100 scenarios modeled in this study, and accelerated cost declines for renewable and clean energy technologies could lead to even larger benefits,” said Patrick Brown, another co-author.

Headwinds to decarbonization

NREL identified four key challenges that must be addressed in the next decade, through further research and other societal efforts, to enable full power sector decarbonization.

Dramatic acceleration of electrification

Electrification of some end-use energy services in the buildings, transportation, and industrial sectors is a key strategy for decarbonizing those sectors. NREL said increased electrification also increases overall electricity demand and the scale of the power system that needs to be decarbonized.

New energy infrastructure

This would include siting and interconnecting new renewables and storage at a rate three to six times greater than recent levels, which would set the stage for doubling or tripling the capacity of transmission, upgrading the distribution system, building new pipelines and storage for hydrogen and CO2, and/or deploying nuclear and carbon management technologies. The recently-enacted Inflation Reduction Act could jumpstart the deployment needed by making it more cost-effective.

Expanded clean energy manufacturing

The unprecedented deployment rates would require growth in raw materials, manufacturing facilities, and a trained workforce throughout clean energy supply chains. NREL said further analysis is needed to understand how to rapidly scale up manufacturing.

Continued R&D

NREL said technologies currently being deployed widely can provide most of U.S. electricity by 2035 in a deeply decarbonized power sector, but achieving a net-zero electricity sector at the lowest cost will take advances in research & development into emerging technologies—particularly to overcome the last 10% to full decarbonization.

NREL said getting from a 90% clean grid to full decarbonization could be accelerated by developing large-scale, commercialized deployment solutions for clean hydrogen and other low-carbon fuels, advanced nuclear, price-responsive demand response, carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, and advanced grid controls.

What about the new law?

The new report follows the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which is estimated to reduce economy-wide emissions in the U.S. to 40% below 2005 levels by 2030. Initial analysis from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that grid emissions could decline to 68%–78% below 2005 levels by 2030.

NREL said the longer-term implications of the new law are uncertain, but they likely will not get the U.S. all the way to 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035.

None of the scenarios presented in NREL’s report include energy provisions in the IRA or the previously enacted infrastructure law, but researchers said their inclusion is not expected to significantly alter the 100% systems explored—and the study’s insights on the implications of achieving net-zero power sector decarbonization by 2035 are expected to still apply.

NREL’s study was funded by DOE. For more, here is a closer look.